Fnatic take on Into the Breach in a match that has UK fans equal parts delighted and disappointed. On the one hand, it means that a UK player is guaranteed to make the play-offs once again. On the other, it means that either the storied Fnatic international lineup or Into the Breach’s underdogs from the UK will be going home. Tom “tomtom94” Coles takes a look at the two teams and breaks down what to expect from the fixture.
Fnatic
Fnatic’s participation at BLAST Paris was barely in doubt. Since they rebuilt around William “mezii” Merriman last year, they have only dipped out of the HLTV top 20 for two weeks, entering the top 10 in February for the first time under his leadership. The organisation has a long history in CS:GO, winning three Majors with a Swedish lineup, but only Freddy “KRIMZ” Johansson remains from those days. The international side went 3-0 in the RMR, with their toughest test arguably being their narrow double-overtime win over UK/Irish underdogs Viperio in their opener.
In Paris an opening victory against Ninjas in Pyjamas on Vertigo saw mezii top the scoreboard, but a narrow overtime defeat by surprise package Monte and a loss to mezii’s former organisation GamerLegion put them not only on the brink of elimination, but staring down the behemoths of G2. Having lost G2’s pick of Inferno in overtime, mezii’s troops rallied on their own pick of Ancient and continued the momentum on Vertigo to knock out the IEM Katowice champions – putting them into this do-or-die matchup against Into the Breach.
Fnatic’s international lineup is anchored by two Brits – mezii as IGL and former Complexity coach, Jamie “keita” Hall, behind the team. Keen UK fans may also recognise Dion “FASHR” Derksen from his stint with Endpoint. With an average age of 26.6 they are the oldest team at the event and they also made play-offs at IEM Rio, where they lost to eventual winners Outsiders in the quarter-finals. Despite their experience it’s the two youngest members that have been their standout performers in Paris, with mezii averaging 1.13 to lead by example, and AWPer Nico “nicoodoz” Tamjidi not far behind on 1.09.
Into the Breach
Into the Breach, by contrast, were an unfancied low seed entering the RMR. A series of weak finishes in CCT events were all forgotten, however, when they made the Major as Legends by defeating Sprout, B8, and Virtus.Pro – the players who won the previous Major as Outsiders. The organisation entered CS:GO with a UK-based lineup in 2021, but parted ways with Adam “Adam9130” Ahmad’s team late last year following a series of disappointing results. In their place came three players with tier one experience – Thomas “Thomas” Utting, Joey “CRUC1AL” Steusel, and Karol “rallen” Radowicz.
Fears of a swift exit were fuelled after an opening defeat by Apeks saw them drawn against PGL Antwerp champions FaZe Clan, but Thomas and his team outmanoeuvred Finn “karrigan” Andersen on Inferno and followed it up by taking down ENCE in a strong 16-7 fashion on Vertigo. A strong start against North American titans Team Liquid hinted at a remarkable 3-1 qualification, but Into the Breach faded on the T side of their opponents’ pick and were unable to muster a fightback against a strong Joshua “oSee” Ohm and company on their own.
Into the Breach have three Brits – in-game leader Thomas and young stars Cai “CYPHER” Watson and Sebastian “volt” Malos; they already became the first UK core to qualify for a Major in CS:GO. Their sniper will also be familiar to UK fans, as CRUC1AL has played with Team Infused, Method, and Endpoint during his career. The lineup is completed by lurker rallen and coach Gustavo “Juve” Alexandre – not only the youngest coach at the event, but younger than all bar one player in the server (CYPHER).
In Paris so far it has very much been a team effort – CYPHER and rallen on a 1.03 average rating, CRUC1AL on 1.04, and volt the highest-rated player on 1.07.
Maps
Fnatic typically ban Inferno, but left it in against G2, choosing instead to ban Mirage. They may elect to ban Inferno again, but that would leave them open to a punish pick of Mirage or Anubis (0% win record from 3 maps in the last 3 months). Into the Breach’s permaban has been Nuke, something which is unlikely to change tomorrow with Fnatic sporting a 66.7% win rate on the map.
Into the Breach will most likely pick whichever of Mirage and Anubis is left, while Fnatic are expected to pick Overpass as both their strongest map and ITB’s weakest – though they could elect to pick Ancient, on which they were strong against G2. The most likely decider is Vertigo, a strong map for both teams.
Possible veto: Overpass (Fnatic), Anubis (Into the Breach), Vertigo (decider)
Stats to watch
A key duel on the server will be CRUC1AL versus nicoodoz, with the AWPers being the highest-rated for opening kills on their teams. The Dane has the edge, a 63% success rating from 18.0% of his team’s opening kill attempts beating CRUC1AL’s 60.2 in 17.3%.
CYPHER will battle roeJ on the rifle with the Dane again edging out his opponent, 47.9% in the slightly lower rate of 28.4% compared to CYPHER’s 43.5 in 30.5%. One advantage for Fnatic is that while they are the lowest-rated team on HLTV for 5v4 win% (i.e. after getting the opening kill), they have a comparatively high win rate in the reverse, winning 30.4% of rounds after going a man down.
Into the Breach have the edge in pistol rounds in 2023, winning 52.5% to Fnatic’s 47.8%; though it should be said Into the Breach have typically played lower-ranked opposition. Into the Breach also have the advantage of having former Fnatic Academy rifler volt as a late-round closer with the youngster winning 28 1v1 clutches in 2023, including one in the victory over FaZe. One factor that may come back to haunt ITB, however, is their somewhat weak flash assists – they have managed just 0.18 per round in 2023 so far compared to 0.32 for their more illustrious opponents.
Conclusion
It’s hard to look past Fnatic for this matchup. Their experience is massive, and their firepower is backed up by the tactical mind of keita and a player in mezii who has taken to calling like a duck to water. That said, Into the Breach have been written off before, and proved everyone wrong. They have a distinct advantage in the veto and enough talent to suggest there is every chance that volt and his team-mates will make Fnatic regret ever letting him go.
